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Last week, we talked about how USD/JPY should continue to trend lower because of risk aversion, volatility and seasonality. Although the US government’s bailout of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac has helped to reduce risk aversion and eventually volatility, we still believe that the USD/JPY rally may not last. Having hit an intraday high of 109.08, the currency pair has failed to hold onto most of its gains. With the US dollar having rallied significantly against many of the major currencies, there are less investors looking to get long and the least attractive currency pair at the moment is certainly USD/JPY. Even though the Japanese economy is in as much trouble as many of its international counterparts, their soft outlook surprises no one. The only thing that can help USD/JPY would be a continuation of the equity market rally and even with todays close to 300 point move, the impact has been limited.
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